Archive for the ‘Candidate for President’ Category

Wall Street keeps going up while Main Street is going under water. Why?

Friday, November 13th, 2009

The Federal Reserve and our fearless leaders in Washington have set up a “Can’t Lose” scenario for big bank speculation.

Their traders are almost guaranteed winners . This is  a “no brainer” situation which leaves me  sorry that I left the tradeing desk  a lifetime ago.

The big banks can borrow money from the Fed for close to 0%, which they theoretically should be lending to consumers for mortgages, small business loans, and other economy stimulating  activities.

Instead they are useing this almost free money to speculate or trade in foreign currencies, or to buy commodities such as oil , gold futures, or anything else which is benefiting from a falling dollar.

Prices across the board are being bid up despite the imminent onset of the next phase of our recession/ depression.

Large multinational corporations are showing growing profits due to the weakened dollar . Overseas sales in foreign currencies are brought back to the U S where an additional profit is realised due to the dollars weakness.

If you pay attention to the economic reports, you will notice an exorbitant number of corporations reporting that they exceeded estimates of earnings per share (E P S ) but they are also reporting shrinking sales volume.

The increased profits despite smaller volume is due to cost cutting overhead.( Layoffs) , in addition to the falling dollar.

A win for multinational corporations, a big LOSS  for the American worker.

The Market continues to recover, passing the Dow 10000 mark and not looking back, yet the U S economy is still mired in a spreading recession.

Unemployment is increasing week by week. Last week the new filings for Unemployment insurance wasd ONLY 510000 ..Only!! Are you kidding me.

They say that is an improvemnt showing a turn in the economy.BULL FEATHERS!!! 

 They don’t care.

They have an agenda which welcomes spreading economic pain for the little guy.

In September consumer credit fell almost $ 15 billion, the 8th consecutive month of contracting consumer credit, (Over $ 170 billion total so far)

Considering that consumer debt is still exceeding historical levels by over 60% of income, or almost 2 1/2 to 1 . This indicates an additional correction can be expected, which should exceed the rapid decrease which we have just experienced.

 These figures do not include the mortgage credit markets, creating an additional credit contraction of $ 4 - 6 trillion.

This scenario, coupled with other market factors which we have discussed over the past 16 months will create a serious deflationary spiral, which should accelerate as the prime ARM’s begin to accelerate in 2010-2011.

At this rate of deflation the burgeoning recession/depression figures to have another 5-8 years, assuming that the Government leaves the economy alone,  Which it won’t.

Next- Don’t forget the falling dollar!!! A great way to further muddy the waters .

Is Wall Street right? Are things really getting better?

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

Wall Street might think its right, but its really turning left, and a left turn  isn’t good for Capitalism.

Our investments are doing very well !

The Dow is currently holding above 10000.

And this is a  great achievement when you compare it to last March, but very sobering when you realise that this is where it was in the Spring of 1999. This kind of progress could drive a sober person to drink.

When you factor in the fact that the buying power of the dollar is only 70-75% of what it was in 1999,  a case could be made for investors being down 25-30% during the last decade.

“Hot Dog! Are we running backwards, or what!”

In real terms, almost 15% of us  are unemployed, and home prices continue to fall .

Foreclosures are increasing at close to a  5% rate, and the numbers are growing despite various government sponsored and ineptly initiated bailout plans.

What will the future bring? Are things really improving, or is this a sham perpetrated with mirrors.

The Obama presidency has hit some serious bumps in the road, and his future as a viable President is being affected.

A case in point is the Governors race in New Jersey.New Jersey is a traditionally very blue state, and one that Obama carried by better than 15% .

Despite a highly  uninspired campaign, Chris Christie the Republican candidate is running neck and neck with  Governor Corazine.

The panic in the Democratic ranks is evident by the parade of heavy hitters arriving in New Jersey to try and boost Corazines reelection chances.

In the last week, we have seen Vice President Biden, Former President Bill Clinton, and now the President himself, stump the state in an attempt to engender excitement for Corazine, yet the polls continue to signal a dead heat.

This is not a good omen .

A Democratic loss, or even a close win is a repudiation of the Obama policies, and an abandon ship warning from the moderates in his party.

Obama is stuck in a quandary. All the money spent, and the promises made, leave his presidency in a very difficult position.

Going forward is impossible and going backward is unthinkable.

He can’t back away from his promises to rescue the U S economy, if he does the whole country will loose the glow of hero worship, and the historic election will turn into quite a different meaning.

On the other hand, going forward with his expensive rescue and stimulus programs will take $ trillions additional. Since he doesn’t have the money, he will have to borrow or print more .

He has already used up half the trees in North America printing all this money so far. Who knows how many more trees will have to be sacrificed to the voracious printing presses.

The best hope for a successful resolution for the President would be an economic recovery.This way Obama wouldn’t have to do anything, and he would be able to retain his mantle of invincibility.

That is not going to happen, no matter how much the media and the insiders try to run this rally.

“Why not?” You ask.

If you have followed my writings you already have the answer.

Our system is broken, the recovery is an illusion, and the reality is that we are headed into a much more serious recession/ depression.

The consumer credit economy is dead.

The banks aren’t lending to consumers, and the consumers don’t want to borrow anyway.

Consequently demand is shrinking.

Wall Street has managed to keep its rally going by posting higher profits , which they trumpet, yet lower gross sales, which they whisper.

They call it reduced overhead, but what they mean is employee layoffs, and shrinking benefits.

Rest assured, this recovery is a fraud, and the illusion for recovery is a sham.

Seeing the Beauty in Nature Helps Define the Soul of Man

Wednesday, October 7th, 2009

 Ever since the day when our  first primitive Human ancestors stood up on two legs and surveyed  the world which would one day belong to His descendants,  Man has been struggling to control  his  environment.      

    Nature has ever been a source of conflict and danger.

    Competition with other animals for  food was the key to avoiding extinction.

    To eat and not be eaten, has always been a primary rule for survival.         

     Becoming a skilled hunter was important.  

     Developing the skills to avoid becoming the prey was a good idea. Life is much easier if you  live at the top of the food chain.        

     Humanity has learned to insulate itself from some of the ravages of nature.

     Animal skins, and other  types of clothing. helped Man to adapt to and survive more extremes of nature.          

     The Human Animal has always been inventive, utilizing the bounty of Nature to elevate Himself  above the other competing species that inhabit his world .

     Caves and trees as safe havens for shelter. 

     Bodies of water as  boundry’s and barriers for protection.

     Rivers as a means of transportation.   

     Sticks and rocks made effective weapons in the hands of an upright biped with a moveable  thumb     

     As human brain capacity evolved, humanity became the dominant species  on the Planet and was able to excert more and more control of  His environment.          

     The evolution of man’s soul and the emergence of his consciousness saw Man begin to develop an awareness of himself as an individual  entity, enabling him to relate to his peers as well as to the natural environment which was his home.

     Having evolved from nature, Man must learn to live in harmony with his world.

     Domination is a responsibility as well as a privilidge.

The Good, the Bad, and the Really Ugly,

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

Fed Chairman Bernanke announced today that the recession is over as of the 3rd quarter of 2009.

3rd quarter? Now? Where? When?

How did I miss this miracle recovery ?

The 3rd quarter of this year?

Pinch me so that I can wake up and smell the roses along with the rest of the country.

Excuse me. THERE IS NO RECOVERY!!!!!!!!

Its all a fake aimed at making Americans feel less uneasy about the future.

If we see the truth of how bad the economy truly is, then all of those $ trillion social engineering programs will never get done.

The motivating factor this summer concerning the town hall protests, and the recent tea party express shows the politicians that Americans are afraid of their economic situation, and truly petrified at the direction  in which  disappearing  former prosperity is heading.

Let me be perfectly clear. If you talk to the average American small businessman, you will know that there is no recovery. We are hurting and no one especially the government is helping  small business.

All the improvement is directly the result of bailouts. Nothing, not a cent is generic growth, either sustainable or recurrent. NADA!

When subsidies go away, so will the sales. We have used up probably the next 7 or 8 months of auto sales with the cars for clunkers promotion. Great, they were able to get rid of some inventory, and of course auto labor unions were able to keep their members happy, but the general recovery will end with the stimulus.

Our economy is beginning to look similar to the Japanese economy of the past 15-20 years.

When they entered their recession in the early 90’s the Japanese government lowered interest rates to almost 0 % to encourage borrowing. The Japanese people had just come off a disastrous economic fall wiping out almost 50% of their wealth,on their speculative bubble and they did not want to borrow. They wanted to save instead for retirement.

Instead of helping the Japanese people, the net effect of this fiscal policy of low interest rates and economic stimulus , was to encourage speculators from around the world to come to Japanese banks to borrow money at close to 0% interest.

They then used the cheap money to build a factory in China or Brazil or speculate in oil or other commodities.

Japan became the financier of speculation around the world, yet 20 years later their markets and real estate values are still down over 50%.

American banks have plentiful cheap money which they won’t lend to average Americans , who don’t want to borrow and spend anyway. Americans are interested in saving for retirement.

We can only hope that 20 years from now the American fiscal policy won’t be compared to the Japanese fiasco.

The housing and real estate markets, getting better or getting worse?Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder

Monday, August 24th, 2009

The main stream media and the administration pundits continue to put a positive spin on the recovery of the housing market.

Last week they trumpeted  the proof of an emerging recovery.

Existing home sales jumped 7.4% between June and July. This represented the largest percentage increase in a decade.

The National Association of Realtors announced this increase, but also noted that the median selling price was down over 15% from the same period last year.

These encouraging sales figures were skewed by a large majority of low priced distressed properties. and were aided by very low interest rates and Federal tax credits for first time buyers.

The reality is sobering and the balance is extremely delicate and dangerous.

1. Most sales represent foreclosures and short sales, forced by financial distress,( almost 90% of the total.) Slightly over 10% can be considered normal sales

According to the Mortgage Brokers Association( MBA(, reportedly 1 in 8 mortgage holders are in some stage of delinquency or foreclosure.

The  majority of the increase in existing home sales has been seller driven by falling prices and defaulting mortgages. These pressures will continue to exert downward pressure on real estate prices.

2. There is a change in the origin of defaulting mortgages. The past two years, the pressure has been primarily from sub prime home owners unable to refinance because their  mortgages were under water.

The past 6 months has seen a shift from sub prime to prime borrowers, unable to make payments due to job loss and economic recession. According to the Mortgage Brokers Association, almost 60% of new foreclosures in current quarter were filed against prime borrowers, up from 40% last year. Sub prime was only 32% compared to 50% + last year.

3. The much larger number and size of the prime ARM’s which we have talked about extensively are set to begin adjustin in huge numbers beginning in 2010 and accelerating into 2011.

These are the infamous Alta and Option ARM’s which involve larger more extensive properties, and are arriving while unemployment continues to grow.

4. Commercial mortgages , Not heard from yet, but with all the abandoned stores and empty shopping centers, coupled with the wasteland developing in out industrial  parks, these mortgages are a problem in the works.

5. Home inventory of existing homes. In July home inventory increased by 7 1/2 % to over 4 million hoes. This is almost a ten month inventory, and does not include the shadow inventory of people who want to sell but are waiting for an uptick in the real estate market before putting their home on the market.

This is going to be a cold winter, a Madoff’d( Scrooged) Holiday season, and an even colder winter and spring for 2010.

Sorry, but the truth is the truth.

Health Care Reform, Here is what I would accept

Friday, August 14th, 2009

O .K .Mr & Ms slick politicians. You want  to change the health care rules.

No problem. I am opposed to government meddling in private sector free enterprise because I don’t thing you are even 25% as able as we are to handle business decisions.

But, if you insist. Here is the only way that I would accept your new rules.

Ready.

Are you really ready for a solution that will turn out equitable for all Americans.

All right, here it is.

Put all politicians, civil servants, union employees & bosses, Congress, the Judges, the President, everyone and all their families into the same program that you want for us.. If what you want to do to health care is so great then let everyone share in the bounty and the benefits of the new system.

No exceptions.

No alternates.

What is good enough for me is good enough for all.

This must be written into law, and unchangeable for a minimum of 25 years. This way if end of life savings is a hidden agenda, it will affect you as well as me. Your families as well as mine.

Of course if you accept this plan we will have to exclude all illegal non citizens, otherwise we could never afford to take care of your health needs at a reasonable level. When they become legal naturalized citizens through existing immigration laws then of course all citizens will be covered.

What do you think oh mighty elite. If its good enough for the people I love, then it should easily be good enough for your loved ones, after all you are JUST public servants.

This plan will guarantee a fair and equitable reform of health care that will protect all the citizens of the United States.

Mess this up and you will be messing up your own family,  so be careful and do a righteous job ,

A parable, Fat Louie, the duck with gout, seeks fowl health care.

Thursday, August 13th, 2009

Fat Louie was getting old.

He was a fat white duck, and he was suffering with the gout.

He had contracted the gout as a result of eating rich human  foods thrown into the lake at Snapfinger Woods Estates, a complex east of Atlanta.

Snapfinger lake was  man made, as an  amenity for the residents of the condominium complex.

Louie had been top duck when he was younger.

His flock consisted of 12 adult ducks in the spring,usually  expanding to 17 or 18 by fall.

His superior swimming ability ensured that  Louie would be the first to reach the food.He loved to showoff his  speed, and he really loved the morsels that his humans threw into the lake.

The gout is a painful form of arthritis that develops from excessive consumption of rich foods. In ducks this results in elevated levels of uric acid, which can crystallize and form painful deposits in a ducks webbed feet or ankles.

In Louie’s case the crystals settled in his right ankle causing pain and a difficulty in swimming and walking.

The gout is known as the rich ducks disease.

Ducks in the wild, subscribe to the adage,” survival of the fittest”. When Louie developed his painful affliction,the flock turned on their leader.He was chased away and forced out of the water.

Louie   spent his days alone,on dry land, He became a clown,waddling around the Snapfinger Woods grounds.  When he saw a potential  food suplier he would go into his pathetic quacking act ,hobbling with great effort. The “awwws” invariable turned into more food for Louie.

As the seasons passed, Louie became fatter and fatter. He was very lonely .

One day he looked at his reflection in the water. ” Louie, your getting old,” he said to himself. ” I think its time to get my leg fixed.”

The Greater Atlanta Duck Association (GADA) had passed the Universal Fowl Health Reform Act of 09 (UFHRA ‘09) . According to GADA, every duck in the greater Atlanta area would recieve  free premium government supplied health care .

” Health care on demand. I’m ready  to get treatment for my gout. ” Fat Louie quacked. ” I’m getting old, and its time for me to get back into the water. Maybe I can even find an old Daisey to keep me warm in the winter.”

Fat Louie went to the GADA satellite office in Stone Mountain.

Two very pretty an very young Dasie’ s greeted him at the front door. “Hello Mr Louie,” they quacked. ” Please wait over there and we will add your name to the list.

Fat Louie walked through the door that they indicated.

It was a very large and very noisy room filled with several thousand assorted fowl.

The noise was deafening. There were birds of every species and every age from hatch lings to the very old.

There were wires and roosts filled with  waiting patients and the ground was crowded with non flying birds .

The floor was covered with upward of a foot of  poop, and the cacophony of  hoots, caws,quacks and assorted bird calls was deafening.

Louie looked around for someone in charge.

The scene was chaotic, and finally Louie found a small group of white ducks off to the side,

He waddled towards them glad for some familiar ducks.” Hello everyone. My Name is Louie, Fat Louie. When do I get to see the doctor?”

The group of white ducks looked at him for a moment then all began to quack at once.

” Hold on, one at a time please, I can’t understand you all talking at the same time.”

An elderly gentleman with molting feathers and a pair of spectacles perched on his nose, stepped forward.” I’m Daniel Duck. and  I have been  here the longest, so I suppose I qualify as a spokesman.”

“How do I get to see the Doctors? How long will this take? I have things to do at home this evening”

Daniel looked at him and shook his head” I’ve been here waiting to see a doctor about my failing kidneys for almost two weeks.”

“Why so long?” asked Louie,” I thought  UFHRA guaranteed us free medical care.”

“It does my friend, it does. The problem is that there are not enough doctors, and most of the good ones have gone away to other cities. Because of the shortages, the government has prioritised our access to medical care based upon our are, and the cost of treatment. ” He had a sad look in his  eyes.

” You see, I’m old, and not worth very much to the greater good, so they keep putting me at the back of the line. Eventually I’ll get a turn, but the fird flu that has hit Atlanta is keeping the nurses and doctors busy with younger more cost effective patients

They figure I don’t have much time left anyway.”

“Universal free health care my aching right foot,” squawked Louie, and he waddled out of the room and headed towards home so that he could at least die in his own pond.

While you protest against health care, why don’t you protest for help to small businesses

Sunday, August 9th, 2009

” I’m mad as hell and I don’t want to take this anymore.”

It really frustrates me to be writing about the state of our economy, and the difficult roads that appear to be our options going forward.

As I have stated many times, the economic cycle which has been riding the credit train has derailed. 

This is not a simple fix like the V recessions of the past 35 - 40m years.

Throwing $ trillions   at this problem feels like it has not created a single  job.

Most of the stimulus money has gone to maintain the status quo. The State union employees usually get to keep jobs which might been terminated.

Now they want to change health care and life choices G-d help us !

With my money, they have already  bailed out :

Banks!

Wall Street!

AIG !

GM

Chrysler!

A wooden arrow manufacturer in Arizona or Idaho or  somewhere, for heavens sakes!

All a bottomless pit of endless spending with no way to pay, and no real hope of creating new jobs.

 The government is the only stimulus that is growing.

Yet with all of this debt and all of this incredible spending, the one sector that could actually help the economy rebound and create bold new directions , is being totally ignored. 

How about small business.

 The inventor.

The entrepreneur

The small manufacturer that employs 8-10 maybe several hundred people.

How about the repair shops and the wholesale distributors.

Retail stores.

Restaurants and entertainment venues.

Where is the bail out or the stimulus to help these millions of small businesses who employ tens of millions of people.

We are bearing the brunt of this near depression,

We are being regulated and taxed to death.

A s a group we are sinking closer and closer to the abyss of bankruptcy and to defaulting  on our debts, obligations, commercial mortgages.

Survival is a daily fight, and it is very frustrating to see all the fat  cats get bailed.

Yet, we get nothing but more squeeze from taxes, unemployed customers, and a shrinking dollar.

WHERE IS OUR HELP?

YOU’LL BE SORRY IF YOU LOOSE TOO MANY OF US.

WE HOLD THE KEY TO THE REAL TURN AROUND!!!!!

Fat Louie, a duck with gout, a parable about fowl economic stimulus

Thursday, August 6th, 2009

Louie was a fat, fluffy, white duck.

He lived on a small private lake, east of Atlanta.

The lake was man-made as an amenity for a small condominium community of rustic, 2 story wooden apartments  known as Snapfinger Woods Estates.

The creek that ran through the small wooded area was known as Snapfinger Creek  and, hence, the name Snapfinger Woods Lake.

When Louie was younger he was the head duck of a small flock  that claimed Snapfinger Lake as their home.

In the Spring, the flock usually consisted of 12 - 14 adults  and would expand to 18-20 by the end of the Summer.

The residents of Snapfinger Estates loved to feed their flock of ducks.  They would throw bread and stale cakes into the water and watch as the ducks raced for the food.

Louie being the leader and the fastest swimmer, usually got to the food first  and he would gobble the morsels in a splashing frenzy of duck gluttony.

As the seasons passed, Louie got bigger and fatter from eating all the rich human foods.

One morning he woke up and realized his right leg hurt. It was swollen and painful for paddling. Louie had the gout.

The Ducks, being wild birds and advocates of the premise “survival of the fittest”  quickly fired Louie from his position of head duck  and expelled him from the community lake.

Louie was devastated.  For weeks he wandered around the Snapfinger Woods Apartments common areas and the parking lots.

He would waddle, dragging his right  foot for sympathy.     The residents  took pity on Louie and continued to feed him.

The following Fall, the greater economy of the Nation fell into a deep recession and many of the human residents of the Snapfinger Woods Apartments lost their jobs.

Fat Louie’s sources of  gratis food became increasingly difficult to find.

He decided that it was time to go to work ,  so that he could afford to buy his own food.

” What can an enterprising, hungry duck with the gout do to earn a living?” He  thought to himself.

“Of course!”  he quacked, ” Humans love down pillows! …And… Who knows more about down  than a duck?”

Louie did some investigating and found that there were 10 duck -owned, Down production facilities in the greater Atlanta area, employing over 10,000 ducks.

During a bad recession, demand for down pillows and comforters is sluggish, but Louie didn’t  care.  He had a business plan to establish himself and his flock as the Down Kings of  Georgia.

He contacted the Greater Atlanta Duck Association( GADA) and requested a meeting with their Drake  financial chief .

Over the years, the Federal Government had been a major recipient of bird droppings, which was valued as fertilizer .  Louie proposed that GADA call in some political favors.

The Congress and the President had appropriated massive amounts of money as part of several stimulus packages to help fight the recession.

Louie proposed a joint venture with GADA to get some stimulus money for a proposed new down factory.

With $3 million of Federal stimulus money, Louie opened a brand new state of the art down factory.

The new factory, with the massive influx of cash,  had a major competitive edge over the more established and conservative down factories.

Soon, Louie’s factory was growing geometrically and he was able to hire 4000 ducks .  He squeezed most of his competitors out of business  by lowering his prices. After they were out of business, Louie raised his prices by 50%.  After all,  he no longer had any competition.  He DID  have all that stimulus money helping to subsidize his operation though.

The net result of the government stimulus program:

6000 lost jobs.

Hundreds of thousands of $ lost tax revenue from former down manufacturers.

A heavy increase in unemployment insurance claims by the ducks of Atlanta.

Fat Louie got fatter yet, and his gout got worse.

The business cycle is like the cycle of life

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

The business cycle is like the cycle of life.

It is born.

It learns how to walk. 

It reaches maturity.

It blossoms .

It grows old .

Eventually it must die.

Business cycles tend to follow credit cycles.

When credit is available, people borrow and spend today for things that they might otherwise not purchase until tomorrow.

Your current automobile might be only 3 years old, and in decent condition for another 3 or 4 years, but easy credit tends to encourage the consumer to buy a new car before it is necessary.

On a macro scale, when credit flows, and people spend on future necessities today, business makes profits, hires new employees , spends more on technology, expands facilities and  helps to generate growth.

When credit cycles contract, a new direction is created. Borrowing shrinks, spending contracts, savings go up and debt is reduced. Businesses contract, increase layoffs, and delay spending.

The last major credit shift experienced by the U S economy shifted to an expansion mode in the early 80’s. The Greenspan and Reaganomics agendas saw an expansion of available credit  which grew virtually unchecked until 2006-2007.

We are currently in the early stages of a Credit Contraction Cycle(CCC)

This is not a temporary pause in an ongoing expansion. We have shifted into a new direction.

The duration of this type of cycle typically lasts for an extended number of years and results in bankruptcies, foreclosures and unemployment.

The Great Depression of the 1930’s is usually shown as the standard of CCC economics, but we experienced similar but lesser extreme contractions in the 1960’s and 1970’s, with Nixon’s taking us off the gold standard as a rapid slide into Stagflation.

This is not a “bad recession” as the experts claim, hoping to keep us calm while our economy unravels.

 We are i n a Depression. It is just beginning, and it will feel more difficult because there is an entire generation of Americans who have never experienced bad times.

Savings have increased from 0% to just over 7% in slightly over 1 year, and demand is contracting because there is less money to spend.

The Administration is trying to add demand by spending money at a super record pace, but  cask for clunkers and various stimulus spending sprees are just moving money from one place to another.

 Demand is not being generated, that will only come when new wealth is created and wages and employment increases.

Unfortunately that will take years, a major shift to expending credit once again, and of course a great deal of contracting and suffering in the interim.