Archive for the ‘Quality of Life’ Category

Are we turning this recession into the next Great Depression?

Monday, September 28th, 2009

It is necessary to revisit an article I wrote last January.

This pertains to a correlation between our current economic situation and the outset of the Great Depression.

There are many disturbing similaritiess, and the critical time line is getting too close.

Read and see if some of these actions taken by FDR sound chillingly familiar.

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I have been telling you a shortened version of how Hoover and Roosevelt managed to turn a bursting speculative bubble, and a moderate recession into THE Great Depression.

In A previous article I gave you some unemployment data,based upon a Vedder & Gallaway  statistical study in their book “Out of Work”.

 Unemployment in November 1929 , was just over 5% almost two  months  after the market crash .

Unemployment hit a high of 9% + in December 1929, but gradually dropped to mid 6% by the beginning of Summer 1930.

 President Hoover and later FDR began tampering with the economy . They attempting to reduce unemployment  by  imposing  protectionist  tariffs.

This intervention resulted in double digit unemployment , but it was more than a year after the crash.

The more they attempted to fix the economy, the higher the unemployment numbers became.

F D R interfered with the economy more than any President to that time. Previously, it was not considered the business of the Government to  intervene in economic cycles.

The more Roosevelt tried to use government spending to help the economy, the higher the unemployment rates soared.

The methodology which he used , involved putting people to work!  Sponsoring Publick works! Rebuilding and improving the infrastructure! All honorable intentions.

However, let me explain.

Everyone knows the expression,” the road to someplace is paved with good intentions.”

Here is whar Franklin D Roosevelt and several other well intentioned leaders have done, or are about to do.

For clarity, lets shrink everything down to a small parable.

Lets say the President has $ 1 million available to stimulate the economy.The money was from the Treasury , and had come via taxes collected.

He looks at the pile of bills.” Not bad,” He thinks. This is quite a large pile. I should be able to help a great many people with all this money.

He scratches his chin,” My citizens are hurting. Unemployment keeps going up. The people are hungry.”

“What should I do?”

OPTION #1

“I know what I have to do.” He picks up the phone. “Mr Secretary, we must do the right thing. The safe thing.  The Politically expedient thing .”

He holds the phone away from his ear. The voice on the line is speaking loudly.

Finally the President becomes impatient. ” Listen” He says, ” Do you want to help the country, or do you want to get reelected?’

There was silence on the other end.

“We must get money and stimulus directly to the people.” He continues,” We will take our $1 million and create public works jobs .Our people will build bridges, repair roads, construct  hydro electric plants and wind turbine farms.”

” Of the $ 1 Million, $400,000 will go to administer the programs, maybe $250000 will go towards advertising and Public Relations, so that the voters know who created all these jobs.The rest will go directly to the people  to put bread on their tables.” 

 The plan was implemented. The money was spent. The people were put to work… For 1 year…Then what?

In this scenario, which is what happened under FDR, the unemployment rate went up to over 20% and stayed there with a few short term exceptions, for over 4 years.

We had created new dams and new roads, but no new jobs, no new industry, and no new wealth.

OPTION #2

The President takes the $ 1million and calls in CEO’s from 5 small but successful private buisnesses.

” Gentlemen,” He says.” Our Nation is in trouble. The economy is in a slide, and unemployment is growing. “He looks around the room.

“We need your help. Your Country needs your help.

Here is $1million. Taxpayer money. A precious public trust.

I want to give it to you Gentlemen to invest.

Take the money, go back to your businesses and invest this public money. Use it to expand your business. Enter new markets, create new wealth.”

THE GREAT DEPRESSION ENDED IN 1932. A GENERATION OF PEACE AND PROSPERITY ENSUED. A WORLD WIDE VISION OF CORNICOPIA BECAME A REALITY. A LITTLE KNOW RADICAL GERMA, ADOLPH HITLER WAS LAUGHED OFF THE WORLD STAGE.THEY DIDN’T NEED HIM, THEY HAD PROSPERITY.

The Good, the Bad, and the Really Ugly,

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

Fed Chairman Bernanke announced today that the recession is over as of the 3rd quarter of 2009.

3rd quarter? Now? Where? When?

How did I miss this miracle recovery ?

The 3rd quarter of this year?

Pinch me so that I can wake up and smell the roses along with the rest of the country.

Excuse me. THERE IS NO RECOVERY!!!!!!!!

Its all a fake aimed at making Americans feel less uneasy about the future.

If we see the truth of how bad the economy truly is, then all of those $ trillion social engineering programs will never get done.

The motivating factor this summer concerning the town hall protests, and the recent tea party express shows the politicians that Americans are afraid of their economic situation, and truly petrified at the direction  in which  disappearing  former prosperity is heading.

Let me be perfectly clear. If you talk to the average American small businessman, you will know that there is no recovery. We are hurting and no one especially the government is helping  small business.

All the improvement is directly the result of bailouts. Nothing, not a cent is generic growth, either sustainable or recurrent. NADA!

When subsidies go away, so will the sales. We have used up probably the next 7 or 8 months of auto sales with the cars for clunkers promotion. Great, they were able to get rid of some inventory, and of course auto labor unions were able to keep their members happy, but the general recovery will end with the stimulus.

Our economy is beginning to look similar to the Japanese economy of the past 15-20 years.

When they entered their recession in the early 90’s the Japanese government lowered interest rates to almost 0 % to encourage borrowing. The Japanese people had just come off a disastrous economic fall wiping out almost 50% of their wealth,on their speculative bubble and they did not want to borrow. They wanted to save instead for retirement.

Instead of helping the Japanese people, the net effect of this fiscal policy of low interest rates and economic stimulus , was to encourage speculators from around the world to come to Japanese banks to borrow money at close to 0% interest.

They then used the cheap money to build a factory in China or Brazil or speculate in oil or other commodities.

Japan became the financier of speculation around the world, yet 20 years later their markets and real estate values are still down over 50%.

American banks have plentiful cheap money which they won’t lend to average Americans , who don’t want to borrow and spend anyway. Americans are interested in saving for retirement.

We can only hope that 20 years from now the American fiscal policy won’t be compared to the Japanese fiasco.

A Walk through the Graveyard of American Commerce

Wednesday, September 9th, 2009

On Thursday I brought my puppy to work.

I am CEO of a company that imports slate, quartzite sandstone and limestone in tiles and slabs.

We would supply our dealers, and specified corporate projects throughout the United States. At least we used to be active distributors, but the recession/depression has seen our sales shrink by over 60% as the economy slides deeper and deeper into economic stagnation.

Our 10000 sf offices and distribution wareouse  is located in an industrial complex in Western Nassau County, Long Island.There are approximately 15 square blocks of what used to be an eclectic assortment of commercial  industrial businesses that called the area home .

On street parking was always scare, and the roar of large delivery trucks and interstate haulers caused  the buildings to vibrate.

That is all past tense.

There is plenty of on street parking.

The roar and vibrations of large haulers is no longer background noise.

Perhaps the most discouraging sight comes at the end of my day, when i take my puppy for a walk through the industrial park.

Everywhere there are signs of abandonment and stagnation.

Building available.

Property for rent.

Available sale or lease.

Available, will sub divide.

PLEASE BUY OR RENT MYCOMMERCIAL BUILDING. I CAN’T FIND ANY NEW TENANTS, AND THE OLD TENANTS CAN’T PAY THE RENT, OR THEY ARE OUT OF BUSINESS.

The signs of neglect are everywhere.

The lawns are shaggy.

The bushes are growing somewhat wild.

Pot holes remain for months.

The aftermath of a storm remains for weeks.

Where in the past the plants worked multiple shifts, with management staying till 6:30 or 7:00, now the streets are empty by 5:05.

I see this as a  microcosm of American small business.

The banks that hold commercial mortgages on these warehouses and small manufacturing businesses have to be in real jeopardy of  defaults and foreclosures .

The roar of the underwater commercial loans is beginning to glub!glub! GLUB!

Ben Bernanke savior of the World, but can he walk on water?

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

On Friday August 21st in a speech in Jackson Hole Wyoming, Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke declared” We have saved the World from disaster.

He continued, ” As severe as the economic impact has been, it could have been decidedly worse.”

Hallelujah! Praise the lord!.

Despite jobless claims increasing, and real unemployment exceeding 20%.

Despite the dollar being diluted as fast as the printing presses can print.

Despite small businesses being squeezed out of existence,

and despite a projected shortfall of $ 9 trillion over the next 8 years

Chairman Bernanke in lock step with President Obama and the socialist regime he leads, can state with a straight face that”  we have saved the economy from disaster.”

………So Far……..Maybe……..Or maybe not!!!

The government persists in putting a very one sided spin on the economic numbers, and the lap dog press spews the diluted pap that they are fed.

Their  ignorance of the dangerous times and potential disasters that they are perpetrating shows gross incompetence, and disregard for the survival of our country and our economy.

By “cooking the books” they are leaving the American public with misinformation and a lack of  knowledge necessary to survive hard times.

But they will have their social agenda.  Just no functioning society to support that agenda.

The real economic numbers are still falling, and misinforming the public is setting them up for another even harder fall.

We thought that the President could walk on water, now we find that the Fed chairman does the water walk bit too.

Competition or self deception?

The housing and real estate markets, getting better or getting worse?Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder

Monday, August 24th, 2009

The main stream media and the administration pundits continue to put a positive spin on the recovery of the housing market.

Last week they trumpeted  the proof of an emerging recovery.

Existing home sales jumped 7.4% between June and July. This represented the largest percentage increase in a decade.

The National Association of Realtors announced this increase, but also noted that the median selling price was down over 15% from the same period last year.

These encouraging sales figures were skewed by a large majority of low priced distressed properties. and were aided by very low interest rates and Federal tax credits for first time buyers.

The reality is sobering and the balance is extremely delicate and dangerous.

1. Most sales represent foreclosures and short sales, forced by financial distress,( almost 90% of the total.) Slightly over 10% can be considered normal sales

According to the Mortgage Brokers Association( MBA(, reportedly 1 in 8 mortgage holders are in some stage of delinquency or foreclosure.

The  majority of the increase in existing home sales has been seller driven by falling prices and defaulting mortgages. These pressures will continue to exert downward pressure on real estate prices.

2. There is a change in the origin of defaulting mortgages. The past two years, the pressure has been primarily from sub prime home owners unable to refinance because their  mortgages were under water.

The past 6 months has seen a shift from sub prime to prime borrowers, unable to make payments due to job loss and economic recession. According to the Mortgage Brokers Association, almost 60% of new foreclosures in current quarter were filed against prime borrowers, up from 40% last year. Sub prime was only 32% compared to 50% + last year.

3. The much larger number and size of the prime ARM’s which we have talked about extensively are set to begin adjustin in huge numbers beginning in 2010 and accelerating into 2011.

These are the infamous Alta and Option ARM’s which involve larger more extensive properties, and are arriving while unemployment continues to grow.

4. Commercial mortgages , Not heard from yet, but with all the abandoned stores and empty shopping centers, coupled with the wasteland developing in out industrial  parks, these mortgages are a problem in the works.

5. Home inventory of existing homes. In July home inventory increased by 7 1/2 % to over 4 million hoes. This is almost a ten month inventory, and does not include the shadow inventory of people who want to sell but are waiting for an uptick in the real estate market before putting their home on the market.

This is going to be a cold winter, a Madoff’d( Scrooged) Holiday season, and an even colder winter and spring for 2010.

Sorry, but the truth is the truth.

Economic Recovery- a House of Mirrors-What is the real reflection

Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

Everything is getting better.

The recession is over, and there never was a threat of a depression.

Last week 53 economists polled by Bloomberg, said the recession was over in the 3rd quarter of 09( this is the 3rd quarter) and we can expect renewed growth over the next 4 quarters of 1 1/2 - 2%.

Cool! Groovy! I wish I could be a professional economist so that

 I could make up neat fantasy stories.

It’s nice to know that the stimulus was a success.

Where did I put all of those credit cards that I swore I would no longer use?

Let the good times roll…or not…

Our economic prognosticators have overlooked a few facts, which casts a partisan pall on their judgment.

Foreclosures were up 7% in July over last year.

Housing prices are still falling.

Unemployment is still going up, and has exceeded 20% in real terms.

Consumer price index is falling. The sign of a deflationary response to shrinking demand.

Business profits are falling in real terms( more on this in a moment)

Consumer spending is down and savings are up from a negative 2% to a positive 7% + over last year.

Today’s lead article in the Wall Street Journal headlines ” Reluctant Shoppers Hold Back Recovery”

The article goes on to state that major retailers reported thet American consumers continue to hunker down, casting a cloud over the durability of the US recovery.

Retailers transcending  discount to luxury are providing foreboding results.From discount Target stores with a 6,2% drop in same store sales to luxury store Saks with a drop of 15.5%, retailers are forecasting slowing sales through the end of the year, and a “hoped for” recovery by the middle of 2010.

The Obama administration and the Democratic controlled Congress desperately need a recovering economy to maintain the justification for excessive spending. If the Stimulus spending and various other “changes to the economy” has worked then they stay in power and get to change and spend some more.

The 4th quarter numbers will reflect a healthy growth in Gross Domestic Production(GDP)

Don’t be deceived, The “healthy growth ” is compared to the 4th quarter of 2008, a period of  economic disaster.

Of course the numbers are healthy compared to the end of last year. Especially when most profit margins are being maintained by shrinking overhead, namely payroll.

Don’t be surprised by a rally in stocks in the fall and early winter, but be careful when the recession/Depression roars back with a vengeance  next year.

You can only cook the books so long. At some point reality will force its unwanted truth and the markets will have a serious correction.

Dear Friends.

PLEASE BE CAREFUL

Health Care Reform, Here is what I would accept

Friday, August 14th, 2009

O .K .Mr & Ms slick politicians. You want  to change the health care rules.

No problem. I am opposed to government meddling in private sector free enterprise because I don’t thing you are even 25% as able as we are to handle business decisions.

But, if you insist. Here is the only way that I would accept your new rules.

Ready.

Are you really ready for a solution that will turn out equitable for all Americans.

All right, here it is.

Put all politicians, civil servants, union employees & bosses, Congress, the Judges, the President, everyone and all their families into the same program that you want for us.. If what you want to do to health care is so great then let everyone share in the bounty and the benefits of the new system.

No exceptions.

No alternates.

What is good enough for me is good enough for all.

This must be written into law, and unchangeable for a minimum of 25 years. This way if end of life savings is a hidden agenda, it will affect you as well as me. Your families as well as mine.

Of course if you accept this plan we will have to exclude all illegal non citizens, otherwise we could never afford to take care of your health needs at a reasonable level. When they become legal naturalized citizens through existing immigration laws then of course all citizens will be covered.

What do you think oh mighty elite. If its good enough for the people I love, then it should easily be good enough for your loved ones, after all you are JUST public servants.

This plan will guarantee a fair and equitable reform of health care that will protect all the citizens of the United States.

Mess this up and you will be messing up your own family,  so be careful and do a righteous job ,

While you protest against health care, why don’t you protest for help to small businesses

Sunday, August 9th, 2009

” I’m mad as hell and I don’t want to take this anymore.”

It really frustrates me to be writing about the state of our economy, and the difficult roads that appear to be our options going forward.

As I have stated many times, the economic cycle which has been riding the credit train has derailed. 

This is not a simple fix like the V recessions of the past 35 - 40m years.

Throwing $ trillions   at this problem feels like it has not created a single  job.

Most of the stimulus money has gone to maintain the status quo. The State union employees usually get to keep jobs which might been terminated.

Now they want to change health care and life choices G-d help us !

With my money, they have already  bailed out :

Banks!

Wall Street!

AIG !

GM

Chrysler!

A wooden arrow manufacturer in Arizona or Idaho or  somewhere, for heavens sakes!

All a bottomless pit of endless spending with no way to pay, and no real hope of creating new jobs.

 The government is the only stimulus that is growing.

Yet with all of this debt and all of this incredible spending, the one sector that could actually help the economy rebound and create bold new directions , is being totally ignored. 

How about small business.

 The inventor.

The entrepreneur

The small manufacturer that employs 8-10 maybe several hundred people.

How about the repair shops and the wholesale distributors.

Retail stores.

Restaurants and entertainment venues.

Where is the bail out or the stimulus to help these millions of small businesses who employ tens of millions of people.

We are bearing the brunt of this near depression,

We are being regulated and taxed to death.

A s a group we are sinking closer and closer to the abyss of bankruptcy and to defaulting  on our debts, obligations, commercial mortgages.

Survival is a daily fight, and it is very frustrating to see all the fat  cats get bailed.

Yet, we get nothing but more squeeze from taxes, unemployed customers, and a shrinking dollar.

WHERE IS OUR HELP?

YOU’LL BE SORRY IF YOU LOOSE TOO MANY OF US.

WE HOLD THE KEY TO THE REAL TURN AROUND!!!!!

Small Businesses are not so small if the depression forces them to close

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

The small and medium business community has been largely ignored by Congress and the Obama administration.

Perhaps as individual entities, they don’t have the clout of an AIG or G M , or Chrysler, but as an aggregate, they are an extremely vital component of American economic health.

A large number of smaller, independent and usually well educated business entrepreneurs are difficult to control and are usually resistant to government intervention,

Hence, in this left wing socialist leaning environment, their eradication  through inaction is a political statement that has been largely ignored by public discussion.

The lack of stimulus funding is a deafening silence in the current “bail out” economy.

CIT Financial a funding company whose primary customers are smaller businesses, was allowed to fend for themselves when credit support became critical.

The misinformation and deliberate misinterpretation of statistics is an attempt to talk away the recession, or at least hold the terrible reality at bay until the Health Care, and Cap and Trade bills are passed.

The government appears to be more interested in an agenda, than in bringing real relief and helpful stimulus to the small businessman.

As a small business CEO, the reality is becoming more painful every day.The American economy and government pundits are pushing for quick passage of their agendas before the harsh reality of the Holiday season shows the depth of our problems.

From many discussions with my customers and my fellow CEO’s in various industries, this upcoming holiday season will be the worst in a very long time.

Gift giving and joy to children is part of the  American psyche, but this year has changed the spend and credit card mentality of the past 30 years.

Gifts will tend to be more practical and less ostentatious.

Employee bonus’s  will be modest if they exist at all.

Once the reality of our economic depression becomes apparent, the push to pass big new social engineering bills will become a  huge drag on the popularity of the Democratic party, and while Obama’s popularity and approval ratings continue to dive, the practical world of US politics will see Blue Dog Democrats strike a more moderate and fiscally conservative stance.

Sadly this will be a case of too little too late.

The damage to our economy has already been perpetrated, and our children and grandchildren will be paying the price for decades to come.

The life line of public bail outs is having  the effect of delaying the inevitable rather that curing the problem.

We need to finish our rebooting of the economy so new can begin to grow.

The useless stimulus only stimulates controversy

Monday, July 27th, 2009

Last week, The Wall Street Journal had a headline ” recovery likely in 2nd half”.

Goldman Sachs has reported obscene profits for the 2nd quarter, and has declared for a major stock market rally similar in intensity to the ” Jimmy Carter is gone” rally of the early 1980’s.

Is it really that easy? Is the worst over?

Should we all get out our cut up credit cards and glue them back together, so we can ” shop till we drop”?

I don’t think so, unless you have a hidden money tree growing in your basement. If you do, don’t forget your friend Charlie.

The recession is officially 19 months long as of July 09. This represents the longest recession since the early 1930’s, which evolved into the Great Depression.

Are the Journal and Goldman right ? Has the government porkbarrell stimulus fiasco really saved the day?

Is Joe Bidenright ” we have to spend money to keep from going broke?” What ever that means!!!

No! No! and Double No!

What I have been telling you for almost 2 years now, is “we broke the machine”. This is not a simple case of throwing money at the problem to create a new bubble, The system has derailed and you can only fix  a broken system by letting it die, and creating a new and stronger one.

The fabric and structure of our society is realigning. Society’s priorities are changing, and fundamental change takes a long time.

This protracted change is what they call a Depression, and clearing a depression takes time.

Time to heal and recover, Time to use up inventory and develop new demand where it no longer exists. A basic change in the format and the foundation that society builds upon.

Debt reduction.

New industry.

New demands.

The death of old habits and a return to basics.

Something major has occurred, and stimulating it won’t work. Over stimulation is what caused it  to break.

The shakeout is just beginning, The cure is a bitter pill to swallow, and includes, bankruptcies, business liquidations, deflation, defaults, and eventually a possible hyper inflation.

Stimulating a depressed economy is having the effect of delaying the inevitable.  A new auto industry based upon reduced labor costs and new innovative designs would have been the best of free enterprise born out of a G M  chapter 11. It would have allowed for the elimination of oppressive union contracts and make American ingenuity competitive with the World once again.

Instead a government bailout will result in a micro managed mis managed auto company kept alive by government funding to save the unions.