Archive for the ‘New Articles’ Category

The Threat is Now Deflation

Wednesday, December 17th, 2008

The value of everything is falling.

With the 0% discount rate as the last gasp of the Federal Reserve we are moving into uncharted waters.

Consumer price inflation was actually  down 1.7% in November.This is a sharp contrast to an annual inflation rate of almost 6% in July.

With all the money being printed, inflation should become a worry, but it is not.

The value of the dollar, and our ability to service our national debt should become less than negative in the next few months.

Watch out below, a bigger crash is on the way, and it will elave us with the rich and powerful, and the very poor(Us)

There will no longer be a middle class.

Sorry, but the truth is the truth.

Madoff or Madoff whats in a name

Tuesday, December 16th, 2008

When I met him 40 years ago he was known as Bernie Maydoff(may)

Yesterday he was known as Bernard L Madoff(mad)

Today his name is Mud(MUD)

It’s all in the perception.

A Hippie on Wall Street an Excerpt from Charlie Champion, the Story

Tuesday, December 16th, 2008

                            

                              This is an excerpt from a novel

                    The Life and Times of the Fabulous Charlie Champion

                                A Hippie on Wall Street

I have released only a very few excerpts from this novel. It is a work in progress; however, current events regarding Bernard L Madoff made this a reasonable time to release a very small taste for your  entertainment and edification.

                              *                                *                                   *

     Janet’s uncle, Joel J “Marty” Martin , was an Over The Counter (O T C ) trader. In the days before computers, that was a very different profession. In 1966 there was no NASDAQ, no modern computerized instant internet access, and none of the information technology that exists  today.

     In the Spring of 1966, I was a 20 year old junior at Hobart College and had recently reconnected with my highschool  sweetheart, Janet.

     I had met Janet’s Uncle “Marty”, the previous Christmas, at his New Years Day house party.

     Marty was in his late thirties, short, maybe 5′9″, wirey and very active physically. with a highly intelligent mind, quick wit, and an intense sharp tongue. He had thinning black hair and wore thick glasses. He had always distantly reminded me of Woody Allen, both in stature and persona.

     He was a truly strange man, difficult to get close to, but very likeable. His intensity was tempered by his wry sense of humor , and enabled him to define his personal space.

     Several years earlier, Marty had decided to go into business, opening his own OTC trading house..Joel J Martin & Co. They were professional market makers and traders, utilizing the pink sheets, and a World Wide network of friends and competitors, via telephone, telex, and wires.

     Marty, in order to reduce expenses while his new company was getting established, shared office space and the company back office with a friend and fellow trading professional, Bernard Madoff

     Bernard L Madoff and Assoc had been a successful one man trading company since the early 60’s, and Bernie and Marty had become friends and fellow market makers while Marty was training and working at Jersey City based trading house, M S Wein & Co.

     Since they were both one man trading firms, it was a natural fit for them to share an office, telephone systems, and back office personnel. Having another professional liscensed trader made work easier for both men.

     Through Janet, Marty asked if I would be interested in a summer job after the end of Spring semester.

     The opportunity to learn about Wall Street was exciting, and I gladly accepted.

                                  *                               *                               *

     The offices were located at 39 Broadway, on the 12th floor.

     Like a tourist I stopped in front of the building and looked up.

     ” Well here goes,” I thought with a touch of excitement.

     As I stepped off the elevator and walked down the hallway, the echo of my shoes on the polished terrazzo floor sounded loud in my ears.”This was the financial capital of the World!” I could hardly contain myself.

     I was about to be introduced to “The Street”.

     The energy of the place seemed to vibrate in the air. I was very excited, but had the self confidence that came with my youth and inexperience.

     As I approached the frosted glass door, I stopped and tugged nervously at my tie.

     Bernard L Madoff & Associates was printed on top.

     Joel J Martin & Co was below.

     Underneath was a large gold leaf arrow pointing down the hall.

     “Cashier” was printed in black block letters at the bottom.

      I ran my fingers through my long brown hair, patting it into place. i brushed at my slightly rumpled sport coat, then pushed at the door.

     The reception room was modest in size and content. A small glass top table served as a desk.  There was a plush Brown leather couch and a matching easy chair with a low coffee table in front.  On the edge was a copy of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and a copy of the Barrons.

     The room was empty, I could hear a man’s voice say something muffled and the sound of laughter echoed from an open door to my left.  ” Hey Joey, how about putting on some coffee?  My coffee tastes like mud. ”

     I glanced at my watch.  8:45.  I’m on time.  ” Hello”  I called out.  ” I’m looking for Joel Martin. ”

     The voices went silent.  ” Hi, can I help you ?”  The man walking through the door was slight in stature.  He had an olive complexion and his black hair was combed neatly to one side.  He was clean shaved and his dark eyes seemed to sparkle as he crossed the room.

      ” You must be Charlie Champion.”  He smiled and the room seemed to light up.  Marty told me to expect you today.  ” I’m Joe, Joe Flavio, spelled F as in Frank, A, L, V as in Victor, IO.”

     He chuckled and I felt compelled to laugh with him.  “  That’s me, Charlie Champion. “  I stuck out my hand to shake.  ” Nice to meet you, Joe.”

     He put his arm around my shoulders, ” Marty’s not here yet, he’ll be a little late, but he asked me to show you the ropes.”

     Ushering me into the doorway, he stopped beside me. ” Irwin, this is our new helper for the summer.”

     Irwin was a chubby clean shaven man. He appeared to be in his mid thirties. He was dressed in a light weight plaid cotton jacket and wrinkled pants. He had three pens in his breast pocket. His light brown hair was sparse, and brushed to one side to cover the balding spots.

     ” Irwin is Bernie Madoff’s cashier.’ Explained Joe. ” The cashier in a brokerage house is sort of an office manager, who reconciles the books, issues pairoffs and effects stock transfers.”

     He smiled an once again the room seemed to brighten. ” I’m Uncle Marty’s Head Cashier an chief bottle washer. If something needs to be reconciled, I’m the one who does it. At the end of every day, the long and the short positions must balance, and be reconciled with our bank. I am also responsible for NASD compliance.

    

Consider this a short teaser. I will publish a few additional pages of this time period and perhaps provide some insights as to how this all began.

A Hippie on Wall Street an Excerpt from Charlie Champion the Story

Monday, December 15th, 2008

                              This is an excerpt  from a fromnovel                                                                 The Life and Times of the Fabulous   Charlie Champion                                                         A Hippie on Wall Street        I have released only a very few excerpts from  this novel..                 It is a work in progress,However, current events regarding Bernard L Madoff(O T C ) trader. . In the days before computers, that was a very different profession.In 1966 there was no NASDAQ , no  modern computerized instant  access internet No knowledge and information technology that exists today.                In the Spring of 1966, I was a 20 year old Junior at Hobart College, and had recently reconnected with  my highschool sweetheart, Janet.                 I had met Janet’s Uncle,” Marty”, the previous Christmas, at his New Years Day house party.                 Marty was in his late thirties,  short, maybe 5 ‘ 9″, wirey and very active physically, with a highly intelligent mind ,quick wit, and an intense sharp  tongue. He had thinning black hair and wore thick glasses. He had always distantly reminded me of Woody Allen , both in stature and persona.                 He was a truly strange  man,  difficult to get close to, but very likeable  . His intensity was tempered by his wry sense of humor , and enabled him to define his personal space.                 Several years earlier, Marty had  decided to go into business ,opening  his own OTC tradeing house..Joel J Martin & Co.They were professional market makers and traders, utilizing the pink sheets, and a World Wide network of friends and competitors, via telephone, telex, and wires.                 Marty,  In order to reduce expenses while his new company was getting established, shared office space and the company back office, with a friend and fellow trading professional .Bernard Madoff.                   Bernard L Madoff  and Co had been a successful 1 man trading company since the early 60’s, and Bernie and Marty had become friends and  fellow market makers while Marty was training and working at Jersey City trading house,  M S Wein & Co.                 Since they were both one man trading firms, it was a natural fit for them to share an office, telephone systems  and back office personnel. Having another professional trader made work easier for both men.                  Through Janet, Marty asked if I would be interested in a Summer job after the end of Spring semester..                The opportunity to learn about Wall Street was exciting, and I gladly accepted.                                                                            *                           *                     *                The offices were located at 39 Broadway, on the 12th floor.                 Like a tourist I stopped in front of the building and looked up .              “ Well here goes, “ I thought with a touch of excitement.                   As  I walked down the hallway ,the echo of my shoes on the polished terrazzo floor sounded loud in my ears. This was the financial capital of the World.                  I was being introduced to ” The Street” .The energy of the place vibrated in the air.I was very excited, but had the self confidence that came with my youth and inexperience.                  As I approached the frosted glass doors, I stopped and tugged nervously at my tie.  Bernard L Madoff & Associates was printed on top, Joel J Martin & Co. was below. Underneath there was a large gold leaf arrow pointing down the hall. Cashier was in black block letters at the bottom.                  I ran my fingers through my long brown hair, patting it into place. I brushed at my slightly rumpled sport coat, then pushed at the door.                 The reception room was modest in size and content. A small glass top table served as a desk. There was a plush brown leather couch, and a matching easy chair with a low coffee table in front. On the edge were copies  of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and  Barrons.                  The room was empty,. I could hear a mans voice say something muffled, and the sound of laughter echoed from an open door to my left. “ Hey Joey, how about putting on some coffee. My coffee tastes like mud.”                 I glanced at my watch. 8:45. I’m on time. “ Hello “ I called out. “I’m looking for Joel Martin”                 The voices went silent. “ Hi can I help you? “ The man walking through the door was slight in stature . He had an olive complexion  and his  black hair was combed neatly to one side. He was clean shaved, and his dark eyes seemed to sparkle as he crossed to room.                 “ You must be Charlie Champion.” He smiled and the room seemi                           

Another Bailout- The more the merrier

Thursday, December 11th, 2008

What is merry about American Taxpayers flushing another $ 14 billion  down the “rabbit hole”.

$ 14 BILLION, it is getting easier and easier to talk about billions.

This time it is G.M. and Chrysler asking for money.  How about a plan to use this money to save the auto manufacturers and make them competitive and profitable.

Where are the renegotiated Union perks.

 The benefits which were initiated after WW II to lure workers into the facories, were necessary for recruiting a depleted work force.The shortages of labor made these inducements important for attracting the returning soldiers to the factories in Michigan.

There is no labor shortage now, and it hasn’t existed for 50 years, yet the grandfathered labor agreements have been enforced , making American manufacturers non competitive.

Detroits focus on heavy trucks and big gas guzzling cars was their way of staying profitable. Big was more expensive  and allowed for the amortization of  almost $ 3000 / vehicle from past labor benefits in addition to current labor costs.

With the run up in oil prices over the past few years, culminating in the obscene spike last Spring and Summer , the emphasis on smaller more fuel efficient cars has acccelerated.

Under current labor contracts, Detroit is noncompetitive in producing these more streamlined vehicles .

 There is less place to hide the past entitlements.

Lets save our American Auto Manufacturers for America and from themselves.

Consumer Confidence, lack of belief

Wednesday, December 10th, 2008

The Worldwide economy is broken.

Consumer confidence is leaking away.

Business is slowing down.

Fear is becoming  a consuming  emotion.

Consumer spending is shrinking.

The drive to collect taxes is becoming a frenzy.

The value of the dollar is sitting at the edge of a cliff, waiting to be pushed over the edge by governemnt printing preses working overtime to cover the enormous bailouts.

Social Security entitlements are just beginning to trickle into the system.

During the next few years as the baby boomers begin to turn  65, that trickle will turn into a torrent.

The system is bankrupt.

The Country is in for a rough time.

The World economy is going to show the fallacy of a one  world economy.

When the economic leader trips, the rest of the World stubs its toe.  

The Economy is in distress. How are we going to pay for this mess

Monday, December 8th, 2008

Two day rallies in the stock market are fine . They even make some of us feel a little less dazed .

The desperate , who have seen their life savings cut in half, might feel compelled to chase the short term rallies. “Maybe this is the big rebound! Hurry, we don’t want to miss the chance to double up  on our portfolio(dollar cost averaging)”

My dear friends…do not  DO NOT chase these technical rebounds. They are not real, and they are definitely not a long term turn around.

I’m sure President elect Obama has exuded magical confidence, but sorry to say, there is no magic fix . Spending and raising taxes  are not the necessary cure. We have a series of complex situations which are evolving and changing almost daily.

Before we can relax and get back to normal, we must realize that there is no normal. The rules that have governed our economic decisions for the past 30 or 40 years are dead . The rules do not apply any more.

Our life style and standard of living is gone. Changed. Never to return.

The worst of this financial disaster is still to come. The current upheval and resultant slow down is the warning alarm, not the main event.

Prior to the credit meltdown and banking freeze, we were already in serious trouble. 

With the current bailouts totaling well over $ 1 trillion, we are facing several new problems, some short term, some that will unfold during the next decade.

Current problems revolve around personal debt. Credit cards and student loans.

The banks have been inching up interest rates. They currently are in the + 20%  range.

Student loans are very low interest rtes, and current unemployment problems has caused many of these to fall into default.

Perhaps the biggest Gorilla in the financial room is the onrushing Social Security obligation.

75 million baby boomers are beginning to turn 62 to 65. The initial trickle has begun, but the next few years will see this flood grow  beyond our ability to fund the obligation.

More specifics will be posted later.

The 1920’s and the Economy, Then and Now-A Parable

Monday, December 8th, 2008

The Roaring 1920’s and the economy

                            a 

                 Forest  Parable

The 1920’s and the Roaring economy

Study history so we don’t make the same mistakes again

                                    by

                      Charlie Champion  

The forest was filled with a cacophony of  excitement .

Times were good, and the living was easy.

Several years of plentiful rainfall, moderate winters,  and warm nurturing Springs had turned the forest  into a virtual paradise . 

Food was plentiful.

 The predators had been hunted nearly to extinction by the two legged’s. Those that were not killed had left  for the deep unknown forest  far far away.

The cries, squeaks, craws et. al., of the new babies filled the air .

No predators meant bigger families, but the bounty provided by Mother Nature kept all, well fed. 

The wise old Badger was the local  leader, but his stories and warnings were causing the younger animals  to loose patience . He had lived a long life and was experienced in the  ways of nature . He was concerned that the bad times would come back. The younger animals who had never experienced  the fury of Nature ,refused to believe him..

“Yes my friends.” he warned, ” many of you are young. You do not remember the hard times from before.”

He looked around the clearing.” The Winters are not always so easy. There have been many years when we’ve been plagued by severe drought. ”

   He shook his head sadly,”When the streams dry up, then hunger comes to the forest.”

” Oh go on old man!”  Patty Bunny stamped her foot.” Who has time for sad old stories. Old stories are boreing.”

” Don’t say that,”he responded sternly.”To ignore history is to run the risk of repeating your mistakes.”

“Boo on you” said Ronnie rabit.

“Enough already ,” rasped Willie Weasle,” Lets live the good life. It’s time to party.This is the way it’s always going to be.”

“yada ,ya, ya” They hopped off giggling  and whispering.

Several months passed. The Summer was a distant memory.

A large volcano errupted off the coast. The sky was turned grey almost 750 miles distant.

The weather patterns were  changed. A noticeable drop in temperatures became apparent.

The wild fruits and berries never fully ripened, the tubes and bulbs were underdeveloped.

It was 4 or 5 degrees colder, and..  it it almost never rained.

Food became scarce . No one was prepared.

There were not enough stored acorns.

No stockpiled food.

Shortages developed almost overnight.

And the predators returned!!! Driven by hunger spurred by the drout and the very cold winter.

The happy well fed party generation disappeared in an avalanche of change.

Painful change.

Society altering change.

The 1920’s and the Economy

Want to read more?

Just ask.

The Silver Tipped Grey Wolf Who Wished to be President of the Pack

Sunday, December 7th, 2008

Hillaria Wolf had always been very large for her age.

She had been known since she was a pup,  for her cunning and brutality.   Her instincts for survival , and her disregard for the life of others was legendary throughout the pack.

Her selfish  and selfserving approach  to life caused her to be treated with loathing and suspicion by her contemporaries.  

In fact as a pup, during a particularly bad winter she had devoured the runt of the  litter  of her  siblings .

This was a move of despicable self preservation.

But…. She was hungry and  the live prey  helped her to survive the cold winter, and marked her as a Wolf to be reckoned with.

Hillaria was ambitious. Even though she was a bitch,  she planned and conspired to  become head wolf.

A bitch as pack leader was just not done in the world of Silver Tipped Grey Wolves, but  Hillaria was determined. She was born top dog, and would never accept a subservient position in the heirarchy of the pack.

In the Springtime of her third year, she encountered a male Silver Tipped Grey from a neighboring pack. His name was Billwill . He was large and muscular, with a thick full coat. His size, and affable nature placed him in a position of prominence within his own pack.

Billwill was highly sociable. He loved flirting with the young bitches, and they seemed drawn to his musk scent.

The fact that he was glib and likeable but not exceedingly intelligent or agressive made him a desirable mate for Hillaria. She would remake Billwill as a percieved leader of the pack,get him elected  and then she would  become the “power behind the Throne”. 

Her plan worked to perfection.

She only had to devour a few rivals along the way.

Survival of the fittest, you know..

Want to read more about Hillaria, or the little squirrel, or any of my other stories.???

Let me know I need the encouragement.

Hope this made you smile.

There’s enough out there to be scared and sad about, a little jocularity is O K 

cc/PML

Be Careful What You Wish For- Just ask King Midas

Thursday, December 4th, 2008

Many years ago, in a kingdom across the sea,there  lived a very young and very foolish prince.

His name was Prince Georgie., son of King George Midas

The prince was  born with a silver spoon in his mouth. He  was  pampered and indulged by those responsible for his well being . When the Prince got into trouble, he learned that he could use his fathers wealth and  position to buy his way out of any difficulty.

The prince  soon lost touch with the realities of life, thinking that the obsequious servants that surrounded him were proof of his great importance.   

The wealthy , spoiled young prince, grew into an arrogant irresponsible young adult.  He drank alcahol, snorted cocaine, and spent much of his youth and well into his 30’s gambling and  chasing mindless debutantes.

When his father was elected president of the kingdom of Antarctica. prince Georgie realized that if he wanted to succeed his father as president , he would have to straighten out his act.

Georgie stopped doing drugs.

He joined the Royal Air Force reserves, however; he managed to evade active military duty in the “ War of the Penguins” by getting lost  on the way to the front. He arrived six months after the war ended.

He bought a professional Bobsled team with money that he borrowed from his father, then sold the team at a loss  so that he could invest in a company that manufactured ice.

The Ice Making Machine  company failed due to unfair competition from Mother Nature, and Prince Georgie was forced to move back home to live with his parents in the Royal White Ice House.

When his father lost the next election, Georgie was devastated.He was determined to stop at nothing, to avenge his fathers defeat.

Georgie heard about an evil magician who was feared and revered through out the land. His name was Roven the Wizzard.

Roven was reputed to have dark powers of deception and persuasion.

Prince Georgie decided to make a pilgrimage to the Dark Tower to see Roven the Magician . He intended to ask for a magic spell that would  help him become President of Antarctica.

” Oh Master Magician Karrell Roven, ” Said Prince Georgie, as he entered the magic tower. ” I would do anything to avenge my fathers defeat. ” He bowed low to the ground. ” Please help me to attain the rapture of victory.”

” You would do anything?” Rovens voice seemed to echo throughout the Hall.

” Oh yes master magician!” Exclaimed Prince Georgie as he prostated himself on the ground.” Make me all powerful so that I can attain the greatness which was denied to my honored father.”

The Magician looked at him for a long moment. ” So be it!,”  He exclaimed. ” Rise , young prince, rise and extend your right hand.”

The Prince did as he was told.

The magician took the Prince’s hand , held it in a tight grip, and with his right hand smashed his staff across the Prince’s knuckles .

” Yeow!!!” The Prince howled.” Ow..Ow,,Ow!!!”

” Stop whineing. Stop acting like a baby” The Magician glowered at him.”I will now cement the pact with a drop of your blood.”

“M My Blood” Georgie stammered.” Wh Why?”

” Don’t you know anything about black magic,” Grumbled Rovens,”These things are always sealed with blood.”

With that Rovens stabbed Georgies little finger with a long, very sharp pin.” Yeeeeowww!!!” Prince Georgie screamed, and he began to cry.

Rovens looked at him in disgust. ” Making you Presidential will be much harder than I thought.

                                           *      *      *        *      *

The beginning.

Chapter A

More to Come……..Soon

Enjoy, my friends , enjoy.

Have a laugh on me.