Archive for the ‘Just An Observation’ Category

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Wall Street keeps going up while Main Street is going under water. Why?

Friday, November 13th, 2009

The Federal Reserve and our fearless leaders in Washington have set up a “Can’t Lose” scenario for big bank speculation.

Their traders are almost guaranteed winners . This is  a “no brainer” situation which leaves me  sorry that I left the tradeing desk  a lifetime ago.

The big banks can borrow money from the Fed for close to 0%, which they theoretically should be lending to consumers for mortgages, small business loans, and other economy stimulating  activities.

Instead they are useing this almost free money to speculate or trade in foreign currencies, or to buy commodities such as oil , gold futures, or anything else which is benefiting from a falling dollar.

Prices across the board are being bid up despite the imminent onset of the next phase of our recession/ depression.

Large multinational corporations are showing growing profits due to the weakened dollar . Overseas sales in foreign currencies are brought back to the U S where an additional profit is realised due to the dollars weakness.

If you pay attention to the economic reports, you will notice an exorbitant number of corporations reporting that they exceeded estimates of earnings per share (E P S ) but they are also reporting shrinking sales volume.

The increased profits despite smaller volume is due to cost cutting overhead.( Layoffs) , in addition to the falling dollar.

A win for multinational corporations, a big LOSS  for the American worker.

The Market continues to recover, passing the Dow 10000 mark and not looking back, yet the U S economy is still mired in a spreading recession.

Unemployment is increasing week by week. Last week the new filings for Unemployment insurance wasd ONLY 510000 ..Only!! Are you kidding me.

They say that is an improvemnt showing a turn in the economy.BULL FEATHERS!!! 

 They don’t care.

They have an agenda which welcomes spreading economic pain for the little guy.

In September consumer credit fell almost $ 15 billion, the 8th consecutive month of contracting consumer credit, (Over $ 170 billion total so far)

Considering that consumer debt is still exceeding historical levels by over 60% of income, or almost 2 1/2 to 1 . This indicates an additional correction can be expected, which should exceed the rapid decrease which we have just experienced.

 These figures do not include the mortgage credit markets, creating an additional credit contraction of $ 4 - 6 trillion.

This scenario, coupled with other market factors which we have discussed over the past 16 months will create a serious deflationary spiral, which should accelerate as the prime ARM’s begin to accelerate in 2010-2011.

At this rate of deflation the burgeoning recession/depression figures to have another 5-8 years, assuming that the Government leaves the economy alone,  Which it won’t.

Next- Don’t forget the falling dollar!!! A great way to further muddy the waters .

Posted in Candidate for President, Current Events, Financial News, Just An Observation, New Articles, Quality of Life | 10 Comments »

Is Wall Street right? Are things really getting better?

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

Wall Street might think its right, but its really turning left, and a left turn  isn’t good for Capitalism.

Our investments are doing very well !

The Dow is currently holding above 10000.

And this is a  great achievement when you compare it to last March, but very sobering when you realise that this is where it was in the Spring of 1999. This kind of progress could drive a sober person to drink.

When you factor in the fact that the buying power of the dollar is only 70-75% of what it was in 1999,  a case could be made for investors being down 25-30% during the last decade.

“Hot Dog! Are we running backwards, or what!”

In real terms, almost 15% of us  are unemployed, and home prices continue to fall .

Foreclosures are increasing at close to a  5% rate, and the numbers are growing despite various government sponsored and ineptly initiated bailout plans.

What will the future bring? Are things really improving, or is this a sham perpetrated with mirrors.

The Obama presidency has hit some serious bumps in the road, and his future as a viable President is being affected.

A case in point is the Governors race in New Jersey.New Jersey is a traditionally very blue state, and one that Obama carried by better than 15% .

Despite a highly  uninspired campaign, Chris Christie the Republican candidate is running neck and neck with  Governor Corazine.

The panic in the Democratic ranks is evident by the parade of heavy hitters arriving in New Jersey to try and boost Corazines reelection chances.

In the last week, we have seen Vice President Biden, Former President Bill Clinton, and now the President himself, stump the state in an attempt to engender excitement for Corazine, yet the polls continue to signal a dead heat.

This is not a good omen .

A Democratic loss, or even a close win is a repudiation of the Obama policies, and an abandon ship warning from the moderates in his party.

Obama is stuck in a quandary. All the money spent, and the promises made, leave his presidency in a very difficult position.

Going forward is impossible and going backward is unthinkable.

He can’t back away from his promises to rescue the U S economy, if he does the whole country will loose the glow of hero worship, and the historic election will turn into quite a different meaning.

On the other hand, going forward with his expensive rescue and stimulus programs will take $ trillions additional. Since he doesn’t have the money, he will have to borrow or print more .

He has already used up half the trees in North America printing all this money so far. Who knows how many more trees will have to be sacrificed to the voracious printing presses.

The best hope for a successful resolution for the President would be an economic recovery.This way Obama wouldn’t have to do anything, and he would be able to retain his mantle of invincibility.

That is not going to happen, no matter how much the media and the insiders try to run this rally.

“Why not?” You ask.

If you have followed my writings you already have the answer.

Our system is broken, the recovery is an illusion, and the reality is that we are headed into a much more serious recession/ depression.

The consumer credit economy is dead.

The banks aren’t lending to consumers, and the consumers don’t want to borrow anyway.

Consequently demand is shrinking.

Wall Street has managed to keep its rally going by posting higher profits , which they trumpet, yet lower gross sales, which they whisper.

They call it reduced overhead, but what they mean is employee layoffs, and shrinking benefits.

Rest assured, this recovery is a fraud, and the illusion for recovery is a sham.

Posted in Candidate for President, Current Events, Financial News, Just An Observation, New Articles, Quality of Life | 11 Comments »

Seeing the Beauty in Nature Helps Define the Soul of Man

Wednesday, October 7th, 2009

 Ever since the day when our  first primitive Human ancestors stood up on two legs and surveyed  the world which would one day belong to His descendants,  Man has been struggling to control  his  environment.      

    Nature has ever been a source of conflict and danger.

    Competition with other animals for  food was the key to avoiding extinction.

    To eat and not be eaten, has always been a primary rule for survival.         

     Becoming a skilled hunter was important.  

     Developing the skills to avoid becoming the prey was a good idea. Life is much easier if you  live at the top of the food chain.        

     Humanity has learned to insulate itself from some of the ravages of nature.

     Animal skins, and other  types of clothing. helped Man to adapt to and survive more extremes of nature.          

     The Human Animal has always been inventive, utilizing the bounty of Nature to elevate Himself  above the other competing species that inhabit his world .

     Caves and trees as safe havens for shelter. 

     Bodies of water as  boundry’s and barriers for protection.

     Rivers as a means of transportation.   

     Sticks and rocks made effective weapons in the hands of an upright biped with a moveable  thumb     

     As human brain capacity evolved, humanity became the dominant species  on the Planet and was able to excert more and more control of  His environment.          

     The evolution of man’s soul and the emergence of his consciousness saw Man begin to develop an awareness of himself as an individual  entity, enabling him to relate to his peers as well as to the natural environment which was his home.

     Having evolved from nature, Man must learn to live in harmony with his world.

     Domination is a responsibility as well as a privilidge.

Posted in Candidate for President, Just An Observation, New Articles, Quality of Life, just life, the telling of the story | 5 Comments »

Are we turning this recession into the next Great Depression?

Monday, September 28th, 2009

It is necessary to revisit an article I wrote last January.

This pertains to a correlation between our current economic situation and the outset of the Great Depression.

There are many disturbing similaritiess, and the critical time line is getting too close.

Read and see if some of these actions taken by FDR sound chillingly familiar.

                             *           *           *
I have been telling you a shortened version of how Hoover and Roosevelt managed to turn a bursting speculative bubble, and a moderate recession into THE Great Depression.

In A previous article I gave you some unemployment data,based upon a Vedder & Gallaway  statistical study in their book “Out of Work”.

 Unemployment in November 1929 , was just over 5% almost two  months  after the market crash .

Unemployment hit a high of 9% + in December 1929, but gradually dropped to mid 6% by the beginning of Summer 1930.

 President Hoover and later FDR began tampering with the economy . They attempting to reduce unemployment  by  imposing  protectionist  tariffs.

This intervention resulted in double digit unemployment , but it was more than a year after the crash.

The more they attempted to fix the economy, the higher the unemployment numbers became.

F D R interfered with the economy more than any President to that time. Previously, it was not considered the business of the Government to  intervene in economic cycles.

The more Roosevelt tried to use government spending to help the economy, the higher the unemployment rates soared.

The methodology which he used , involved putting people to work!  Sponsoring Publick works! Rebuilding and improving the infrastructure! All honorable intentions.

However, let me explain.

Everyone knows the expression,” the road to someplace is paved with good intentions.”

Here is whar Franklin D Roosevelt and several other well intentioned leaders have done, or are about to do.

For clarity, lets shrink everything down to a small parable.

Lets say the President has $ 1 million available to stimulate the economy.The money was from the Treasury , and had come via taxes collected.

He looks at the pile of bills.” Not bad,” He thinks. This is quite a large pile. I should be able to help a great many people with all this money.

He scratches his chin,” My citizens are hurting. Unemployment keeps going up. The people are hungry.”

“What should I do?”

OPTION #1

“I know what I have to do.” He picks up the phone. “Mr Secretary, we must do the right thing. The safe thing.  The Politically expedient thing .”

He holds the phone away from his ear. The voice on the line is speaking loudly.

Finally the President becomes impatient. ” Listen” He says, ” Do you want to help the country, or do you want to get reelected?’

There was silence on the other end.

“We must get money and stimulus directly to the people.” He continues,” We will take our $1 million and create public works jobs .Our people will build bridges, repair roads, construct  hydro electric plants and wind turbine farms.”

” Of the $ 1 Million, $400,000 will go to administer the programs, maybe $250000 will go towards advertising and Public Relations, so that the voters know who created all these jobs.The rest will go directly to the people  to put bread on their tables.” 

 The plan was implemented. The money was spent. The people were put to work… For 1 year…Then what?

In this scenario, which is what happened under FDR, the unemployment rate went up to over 20% and stayed there with a few short term exceptions, for over 4 years.

We had created new dams and new roads, but no new jobs, no new industry, and no new wealth.

OPTION #2

The President takes the $ 1million and calls in CEO’s from 5 small but successful private buisnesses.

” Gentlemen,” He says.” Our Nation is in trouble. The economy is in a slide, and unemployment is growing. “He looks around the room.

“We need your help. Your Country needs your help.

Here is $1million. Taxpayer money. A precious public trust.

I want to give it to you Gentlemen to invest.

Take the money, go back to your businesses and invest this public money. Use it to expand your business. Enter new markets, create new wealth.”

THE GREAT DEPRESSION ENDED IN 1932. A GENERATION OF PEACE AND PROSPERITY ENSUED. A WORLD WIDE VISION OF CORNICOPIA BECAME A REALITY. A LITTLE KNOW RADICAL GERMA, ADOLPH HITLER WAS LAUGHED OFF THE WORLD STAGE.THEY DIDN’T NEED HIM, THEY HAD PROSPERITY.

Posted in Current Events, Financial News, Just An Observation, New Articles, Quality of Life, parable | 4 Comments »

Health Care Reform, Here is what I would accept

Friday, August 14th, 2009

O .K .Mr & Ms slick politicians. You want  to change the health care rules.

No problem. I am opposed to government meddling in private sector free enterprise because I don’t thing you are even 25% as able as we are to handle business decisions.

But, if you insist. Here is the only way that I would accept your new rules.

Ready.

Are you really ready for a solution that will turn out equitable for all Americans.

All right, here it is.

Put all politicians, civil servants, union employees & bosses, Congress, the Judges, the President, everyone and all their families into the same program that you want for us.. If what you want to do to health care is so great then let everyone share in the bounty and the benefits of the new system.

No exceptions.

No alternates.

What is good enough for me is good enough for all.

This must be written into law, and unchangeable for a minimum of 25 years. This way if end of life savings is a hidden agenda, it will affect you as well as me. Your families as well as mine.

Of course if you accept this plan we will have to exclude all illegal non citizens, otherwise we could never afford to take care of your health needs at a reasonable level. When they become legal naturalized citizens through existing immigration laws then of course all citizens will be covered.

What do you think oh mighty elite. If its good enough for the people I love, then it should easily be good enough for your loved ones, after all you are JUST public servants.

This plan will guarantee a fair and equitable reform of health care that will protect all the citizens of the United States.

Mess this up and you will be messing up your own family,  so be careful and do a righteous job ,

Posted in Candidate for President, Current Events, Financial News, Just An Observation, New Articles, Quality of Life, the telling of the story | 3 Comments »

A parable, Fat Louie, the duck with gout, seeks fowl health care.

Thursday, August 13th, 2009

Fat Louie was getting old.

He was a fat white duck, and he was suffering with the gout.

He had contracted the gout as a result of eating rich human  foods thrown into the lake at Snapfinger Woods Estates, a complex east of Atlanta.

Snapfinger lake was  man made, as an  amenity for the residents of the condominium complex.

Louie had been top duck when he was younger.

His flock consisted of 12 adult ducks in the spring,usually  expanding to 17 or 18 by fall.

His superior swimming ability ensured that  Louie would be the first to reach the food.He loved to showoff his  speed, and he really loved the morsels that his humans threw into the lake.

The gout is a painful form of arthritis that develops from excessive consumption of rich foods. In ducks this results in elevated levels of uric acid, which can crystallize and form painful deposits in a ducks webbed feet or ankles.

In Louie’s case the crystals settled in his right ankle causing pain and a difficulty in swimming and walking.

The gout is known as the rich ducks disease.

Ducks in the wild, subscribe to the adage,” survival of the fittest”. When Louie developed his painful affliction,the flock turned on their leader.He was chased away and forced out of the water.

Louie   spent his days alone,on dry land, He became a clown,waddling around the Snapfinger Woods grounds.  When he saw a potential  food suplier he would go into his pathetic quacking act ,hobbling with great effort. The “awwws” invariable turned into more food for Louie.

As the seasons passed, Louie became fatter and fatter. He was very lonely .

One day he looked at his reflection in the water. ” Louie, your getting old,” he said to himself. ” I think its time to get my leg fixed.”

The Greater Atlanta Duck Association (GADA) had passed the Universal Fowl Health Reform Act of 09 (UFHRA ‘09) . According to GADA, every duck in the greater Atlanta area would recieve  free premium government supplied health care .

” Health care on demand. I’m ready  to get treatment for my gout. ” Fat Louie quacked. ” I’m getting old, and its time for me to get back into the water. Maybe I can even find an old Daisey to keep me warm in the winter.”

Fat Louie went to the GADA satellite office in Stone Mountain.

Two very pretty an very young Dasie’ s greeted him at the front door. “Hello Mr Louie,” they quacked. ” Please wait over there and we will add your name to the list.

Fat Louie walked through the door that they indicated.

It was a very large and very noisy room filled with several thousand assorted fowl.

The noise was deafening. There were birds of every species and every age from hatch lings to the very old.

There were wires and roosts filled with  waiting patients and the ground was crowded with non flying birds .

The floor was covered with upward of a foot of  poop, and the cacophony of  hoots, caws,quacks and assorted bird calls was deafening.

Louie looked around for someone in charge.

The scene was chaotic, and finally Louie found a small group of white ducks off to the side,

He waddled towards them glad for some familiar ducks.” Hello everyone. My Name is Louie, Fat Louie. When do I get to see the doctor?”

The group of white ducks looked at him for a moment then all began to quack at once.

” Hold on, one at a time please, I can’t understand you all talking at the same time.”

An elderly gentleman with molting feathers and a pair of spectacles perched on his nose, stepped forward.” I’m Daniel Duck. and  I have been  here the longest, so I suppose I qualify as a spokesman.”

“How do I get to see the Doctors? How long will this take? I have things to do at home this evening”

Daniel looked at him and shook his head” I’ve been here waiting to see a doctor about my failing kidneys for almost two weeks.”

“Why so long?” asked Louie,” I thought  UFHRA guaranteed us free medical care.”

“It does my friend, it does. The problem is that there are not enough doctors, and most of the good ones have gone away to other cities. Because of the shortages, the government has prioritised our access to medical care based upon our are, and the cost of treatment. ” He had a sad look in his  eyes.

” You see, I’m old, and not worth very much to the greater good, so they keep putting me at the back of the line. Eventually I’ll get a turn, but the fird flu that has hit Atlanta is keeping the nurses and doctors busy with younger more cost effective patients

They figure I don’t have much time left anyway.”

“Universal free health care my aching right foot,” squawked Louie, and he waddled out of the room and headed towards home so that he could at least die in his own pond.

Posted in Candidate for President, Current Events, Just An Observation, New Articles, just life, parable | 1 Comment »

While you protest against health care, why don’t you protest for help to small businesses

Sunday, August 9th, 2009

” I’m mad as hell and I don’t want to take this anymore.”

It really frustrates me to be writing about the state of our economy, and the difficult roads that appear to be our options going forward.

As I have stated many times, the economic cycle which has been riding the credit train has derailed. 

This is not a simple fix like the V recessions of the past 35 - 40m years.

Throwing $ trillions   at this problem feels like it has not created a single  job.

Most of the stimulus money has gone to maintain the status quo. The State union employees usually get to keep jobs which might been terminated.

Now they want to change health care and life choices G-d help us !

With my money, they have already  bailed out :

Banks!

Wall Street!

AIG !

GM

Chrysler!

A wooden arrow manufacturer in Arizona or Idaho or  somewhere, for heavens sakes!

All a bottomless pit of endless spending with no way to pay, and no real hope of creating new jobs.

 The government is the only stimulus that is growing.

Yet with all of this debt and all of this incredible spending, the one sector that could actually help the economy rebound and create bold new directions , is being totally ignored. 

How about small business.

 The inventor.

The entrepreneur

The small manufacturer that employs 8-10 maybe several hundred people.

How about the repair shops and the wholesale distributors.

Retail stores.

Restaurants and entertainment venues.

Where is the bail out or the stimulus to help these millions of small businesses who employ tens of millions of people.

We are bearing the brunt of this near depression,

We are being regulated and taxed to death.

A s a group we are sinking closer and closer to the abyss of bankruptcy and to defaulting  on our debts, obligations, commercial mortgages.

Survival is a daily fight, and it is very frustrating to see all the fat  cats get bailed.

Yet, we get nothing but more squeeze from taxes, unemployed customers, and a shrinking dollar.

WHERE IS OUR HELP?

YOU’LL BE SORRY IF YOU LOOSE TOO MANY OF US.

WE HOLD THE KEY TO THE REAL TURN AROUND!!!!!

Posted in Candidate for President, Current Events, Financial News, Just An Observation, New Articles, Quality of Life | 7 Comments »

Small business, a struggle for survival in a prolonged recession

Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

Washington has worked hard to keep big business afloat.

We have heard the term” too big to be allowed to fail”, used in conjunction with G M , Goldman Sachs, AIG, et al.

How about small but too numerous to be allowed to fail.

The medium to small business community is the  heart beat of the economy.  This deepening recession/ depression has put many of these vital employers into near  cardiac arrest.

The entrepreneurial spirit of the United States and the creation of new jobs and new ideas is a vital contribution of the Small Business community(SBC).

A trip to many industrial parks shows a depressing number of Available, For Sale, or For Rent signs.

Small businesses have been failing in clusters, and the struggle for the remaining to survive is difficult, with no help in sight.

With the Obama administration focused on a larger agenda, it appears that they have deliberately ignored or possibly overlooked the smaller business community.

Perhaps because they are too numerous and too small to be controlled.

Perhaps the courage and intelligence to start something new makes the entrepreneur a poor candidate to economic socialism. 

In order to survive, the SBC has attempted to keep afloat by drastic cost cutting and layoffs, selling off inventory without restocking, and often being forced into skipping rent or mortgage payments or negotiating drastic reductions as a move of practical desperation.

This is a troubling  move that portends problems going forward for the commercial real estate markets.

The upcoming Holiday season could possible be the final blow to many of the Nations small businesses.

Normally the economy gets a major boost during the Thanksgiving to New Years holiday shopping season. Economists are quick to allocate 70% of our economy to consumer spending, and Black Friday is a term dedicated to the day after Thanksgiving as the launch of Christmas shopping season, and the day when many retailers go from red to black, signaling their profitability

The deepening recession, which is sliding into a serious Depression is reinventing consumer spending habits, and I believe that excessive spending and impulse lavish gift giving is not part of our national psyche this year.

Those businesses that are holding on, hoping for that holiday breath of life, may be seriously disappointed this year.

Posted in Current Events, Financial News, Just An Observation, New Articles | 4 Comments »

Bigger is no longer better.Let the Jones’ keep up with themselves

Thursday, June 25th, 2009

World wide production is expected to shrink by almost 3% in 2009.

While house prices are falling, the houses themselves are no more affordable than last year.

Income and employment are also falling, and mortgage rates are inching up.

The institutions with mortgage money to lend, have increased the level of scrutiny and the criteria necessary to grant loans. 

They have learned to be much more careful to whom they lend money, thus trapping potential buyers between  falling incomes and a more stringent lending policy.

Consumers are cutting back. They are no longer exhibiting the  ” keep up with the Joanes’ ” mentality, which has ruled our society for the better part of 40 years.

Smaller houses are in : more affordable, easier to maintain.

Less utility and energy consumption is in.

Smaller more energy efficient automobiles are in.

More modest vacations, including stay at home planning is in.

More modest retirement plans are in.

Public colleges are in.

Two year community colleges are in.

Moving back home by children and grandparents is in.

Saving is up from 0% to almost 7%, while spending has steadily declined.

The vast amounts of liquidity being pumped into the system by the government has created an illusion of new economic growth, but without a return to consumer consumption, there can be no lasting recovery .

Anything else is just that, an illusion and false reflection engendered by government printing presses and the shuffling of funds between the Feds and  the States.

The “green shoots” they talk about implying the beginning of a recovery, is a marketing gimmick. A way to create a false sense of economic recovery, to encourage consumer spending.True growth can only begin to germinate when that which we have broken gets repaired and renewed. A long and painful process, destined to drag on for many years.

THE DANGER IN OUR FUTURE

More Later

My puppy needs dinner and a walk

Posted in Current Events, Financial News, Just An Observation, New Articles, Quality of Life | 1 Comment »

How the Recession is Rebuilding the American Family

Thursday, June 18th, 2009

The American household, and the reconstruction of the family living unit is a phenomenon directly attributed to the worsening recession.

Beginning in the mid 1980’s easy credit, a booming real estate market, and a highly resilient stock market, had the effect of creating separation among families.

It became economically affordable for families to split. Walking rather than talking created a psychology conducive to going on their own.

Money and easy credit  encouraged a rift to become a canyon of misunderstanding, and generated a quest for independence.

Adult children could afford their own places, and grandparents could afford to live in senior communities to be with their own age group.

Divorce was easy and affordable, and single parents became a common option when husbands and wives had  a dispute.

The houses were getting bigger while the number of residents shrank.

The bad economy has changed all of that.

Many children are moving back home to save money while they look for jobs.

Grandparents, having lost much of their retirement nest egg are moving back to live with their adult children.

Spouses are attempting to work out differences and to remain together . Separation and divorce are expensive, and must be a last resort rather than a quick fix.

Multi generational households are becoming a common and indeed desirable , as each generation supplies help ,advice, and security to the family unit.

American society is undergoing a fundamental change in action and perception.

Less bad is the new good!

Smaller  is now  becoming fashionable!

Less is more!

Luxury is out!

Practicality is in!

Buy what you need, not what you want!

Make do with what you have!

Charm counts more than splash!

What is out.

Big houses

Fancy vacations

Expensive restaurants.

Big tips.

Putting on a big front.

Frills are out, practicality is in.

The credit card mentality is out, downsizing is in.

Canning, gardens, wood burning stoves ,bicycles, and walking for exercise are all in.

Downsizing is in.

The landscape of America is beginning to resemble the 1950’s rather than the 21st century go go world of just 2 short years ago.

Posted in Current Events, Financial News, Just An Observation, New Articles, Quality of Life | 7 Comments »

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